Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 1.756655e-01 0.211486 0.249998 0.294189 0.343205 0.395633 0.455678
2025-03-02 1.146892e-01 0.159413 0.211732 0.276220 0.352379 0.438353 0.541640
2025-03-09 8.246201e-02 0.132204 0.195231 0.277943 0.380777 0.501820 0.652482
2025-03-16 5.598663e-02 0.105581 0.174082 0.269800 0.394721 0.547404 0.743372
2025-03-23 4.338156e-02 0.094647 0.170854 0.282782 0.434301 0.624618 0.874219
2025-03-30 3.067007e-02 0.079787 0.159201 0.282221 0.455094 0.678164 0.976864
2025-04-06 2.168494e-02 0.068158 0.149950 0.283180 0.476806 0.732602 1.081247
2025-04-13 1.601853e-02 0.060678 0.145698 0.290351 0.506557 0.797681 1.200112
2025-04-20 1.204799e-02 0.055151 0.143571 0.300005 0.539569 0.867398 1.325922
2025-04-27 8.826809e-03 0.049849 0.140768 0.307895 0.569798 0.933615 1.447985
2025-05-04 5.665695e-03 0.042618 0.132844 0.306338 0.585438 0.979683 1.543707
2025-05-11 3.845850e-03 0.038221 0.129624 0.312054 0.611750 1.040682 1.659980
2025-05-18 2.141023e-03 0.032314 0.122163 0.310002 0.626485 1.086521 1.757871
2025-05-25 7.702675e-04 0.024642 0.108541 0.295229 0.620195 1.101880 1.814211
2025-06-01 3.429245e-04 0.021573 0.105313 0.299276 0.643789 1.160529 1.930784
2025-06-08 6.213186e-05 0.017076 0.096788 0.292013 0.648284 1.191053 2.008499
2025-06-15 2.096460e-05 0.016369 0.099069 0.306450 0.689143 1.275854 2.163147
2025-06-22 4.161052e-08 0.013740 0.094519 0.306306 0.705228 1.323880 2.266495
2025-06-29 NaN 0.011636 0.090875 0.307578 0.723522 1.375308 2.375083
2025-07-06 NaN 0.010496 0.090278 0.315300 0.753059 1.444064 2.508977
2025-07-13 NaN 0.009729 0.090857 0.325578 0.787205 1.520176 2.653992
2025-07-20 NaN 0.008847 0.090638 0.333954 0.818108 1.591662 2.793000
2025-07-27 NaN 0.007210 0.086300 0.332343 0.830981 1.635432 2.892394